Ghana is expecting a rebound in crude oil production by the end of 2026, with about US$3.5 billion in fresh investment commitments being channelled into some of the country’s major producing fields.
Technical Advisor to the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition, Dr Yussif Sulemana, says increased drilling and renewed investment by operators are already beginning to reverse the prolonged decline in output.
“I can tell you on authority that coming by the end of this year, we’re going to have an increase in oil production,” Dr Sulemana said.
Ghana’s oil industry has experienced a sustained decline in production since reaching a peak of approximately 71.44 million barrels in 2019.
Data from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) shows that annual crude production had fallen to about 48.25 million barrels by 2024, raising concerns over declining reserves, ageing assets and insufficient investment in the upstream sector.
Investment returns to key fields
According to Dr Sulemana, the government’s assessment identified ageing producing assets and inadequate capital expenditure as some of the main factors responsible for the decline.
“One was the ageing asset, the reserve being produced for a very long time, and the third one was lack of investment,” he explained.
The government, he said, has consequently focused on creating greater regulatory and operational certainty for existing producers while encouraging additional investment in Ghana’s upstream petroleum industry.
Under the renewed investment drive, partners in the Jubilee field have committed approximately US$2 billion, while partners in the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) project are expected to invest a further US$1.5 billion.
The combined commitments amount to about US$3.5 billion.
Dr Sulemana said the investments are moving beyond announcements, with drilling activities already underway and some newly completed wells contributing significant volumes to production.
“The good thing is that it is not only the promise. Now it’s already been delivered,” he said.
He indicated that some of the newly drilled wells are producing around 10,000 barrels per day, while sustained drilling could potentially push Jubilee production towards between 90,000 and 100,000 barrels per day.
Policy certainty
Dr Sulemana attributed the renewed investor activity partly to steps taken by the John Mahama administration and the Energy Ministry to provide greater certainty to petroleum operators.
Among the measures, he cited the extension of the operating period of the Jubilee partners to 2040, which he said had helped create a more favourable environment for long-term investment.
However, he stressed that Ghana cannot rely solely on its existing producing assets to restore and sustain oil production.
“We shouldn’t be content with the existing field that we have. We need new fields, new entrants to come in,” he said.
The reported interest from international oil companies, including Shell and Chevron, is being viewed by the ministry as a potential sign of renewed confidence in Ghana’s upstream petroleum prospects.
Gas, refining and power
Beyond crude oil production, government is seeking to maximise the wider economic benefits of increased petroleum output, particularly through local refining and the use of natural gas for power generation.
Dr Sulemana said greater availability and utilisation of natural gas had already delivered substantial savings to the country.
He estimates that Ghana saved more than US$250 million in the first half of 2026 by using natural gas instead of more expensive liquid fuels to generate thermal power.
“If you stay on that trajectory, we can save closer to half a billion just for switching from liquid-based fuel to gaseous-based fuel to generate power,” he said.
The Energy Ministry is also pursuing measures to increase domestic gas production and develop a second gas processing plant, with the objective of strengthening energy security and reducing the country’s reliance on costly liquid fuels.
Reversing the production decline
The expected increase in crude output would represent an important shift for Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector, which has struggled to maintain production levels since its 2019 peak.
However, the immediate increase in output is only part of the challenge.
For Ghana to achieve a sustained reversal of the decline, continued investment will need to translate into prolonged drilling campaigns, new commercial discoveries and the development of additional producing fields.
The government’s longer-term objective, therefore, is not simply to increase production from existing assets but to attract new exploration investment and expand Ghana’s petroleum resource base.
