Former Kumbungu Member of Parliament, Ras Mubarak, has cautioned against over-reliance on early opinion polls on the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer race, insisting that any credible survey that does not place Chief of Staff Julius Debrah among leading contenders should be treated “with a very big pinch of salt.”
He said discussions about the party’s 2028 flagbearer contest remain premature, stressing that no member of the NDC or government has officially declared interest in the race.
“All members of the government remain focused on delivering for Ghanaians,” he said, adding that governance priorities should not be overshadowed by internal party competition at this stage.
His comments follow a nationwide telephone poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, which measured early delegate sentiment on potential NDC flagbearer hopefuls ahead of the 2028 elections.
Asiedu Nketia leads in early polling
The survey, which sampled about 10,400 NDC delegates across all 16 regions using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) between March 31 and April 9, 2026, shows NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia leading the race with 29% support.
He is followed by Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson with 19%. Other contenders include former Minority Leader Haruna Iddrisu at 11%, Chief of Staff Julius Debrah at 8%, and Vice President and academic Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang also at 8%.
About 24% of delegates remain undecided, indicating what analysts describe as a still-fluid and evolving contest.
Grassroots concerns over unemployment
Beyond leadership preferences, the Global InfoAnalytics poll also highlights strong grassroots concerns, with 78% of delegates expressing worry about unemployment and job opportunities within the party and the wider economy.
However, optimism remains high, as 88% of respondents believe the economic situation will improve in the near future, compared to just 3% who expressed pessimism.
Tightening contest at the top
The poll indicates a narrowing gap between the frontrunners. While Asiedu Nketia maintains his lead, his margin over Ato Forson has reduced from 16 percentage points in an earlier baseline survey to 10 points in a follow-up tracking poll.
In the second wave, Forson gained 7 percentage points, while Haruna Iddrisu increased by 4 points. Julius Debrah and Prof. Opoku-Agyemang each gained 2 points, while undecided delegates dropped by 12 percentage points.
In simulated head-to-head matchups, Asiedu Nketia leads Julius Debrah 43% to 18%, though a significant 39% of delegates remain undecided.
Debate over timing of flagbearer race
Ras Mubarak argued that the findings should not be overinterpreted, insisting that the NDC’s focus remains on governance and service delivery.
He further maintained that the internal political environment is still evolving and cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from early polling data, especially in the absence of officially declared candidates.
While the Global InfoAnalytics poll suggests an emerging and competitive field, with Asiedu Nketia leading and Ato Forson gaining momentum, Ras Mubarak’s remarks underscore ongoing debate over the timing and relevance of early flagbearer surveys.
Analysts note that with a large proportion of undecided delegates and no formal declarations yet, the NDC’s 2028 leadership race remains open and highly fluid.
